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Raptor says England 8.02% chance in Euro 2012


By Dan Chapman

 

We are sports lawyers. That means we may be sports enthusiasts, but we also do the serious legal stuff and, as you’d expect, we do it in a way that’s just a little bit different from everyone else. A way that we like to think is a little bit more modern, a bit more IT savvy, a bit more efficient and, perhaps, a bit less stuffy. As a result, we’re been developing some software to help our clients analyse legal risk.

It’s called Raptor. That’s Risk Assessment Probability Tree Outcome Representation, if you’re interested. Though if that conjures up the image of something large and fierce, with sharp teeth, that’s just fine by us (we’ve been calling the programme “the Raptor” ourselves). You can find the Raptor here: www.raptor-analysis.com. We think it’s the cutting edge of litigation risk analysis and in the couple of days that it’s been live it’s already been used to advise one Premier League football club on its options in a large high profile case.

But, we’re also sports enthusiasts. So you wouldn’t expect us to develop a sophisticated number crunching risk analysing probability assessing on line Raptor and then use the technology just for legal stuff. So, we’ve asked the Raptor to turn its attention to sporting odds as well. And as the European Football Championships 2012 start on Friday, we asked the Raptor to start with the bookmakers’ odds for those. Why bookmakers’ odds? Well, when it comes to sporting odds, the plain fact is that the bookmakers aren’t often wrong. But their odds can be pretty difficult for most of us to decipher, let alone compare, and, what’s more, they contain a margin for the bookies (fair enough, guys: you have to make a profit!) which means that it’s very hard for anyone to use those odds to get a scientific feel for the actual chances of a particular result. But for the Raptor’s number crunching abilities it’s child’s play to analyse those bookmakers’ odds, determine and strip out the bookies’ margins, and recalibrate them as percentages.

Which means that courtesy of the Raptor, and as world first, we’re able to offer you the Raptor’s odds (calculated from bookies’ odds and presented as simple, easy to understand percentages) for the European Football Championships 2012:

TEAM PROBABILITY OF WINNING
Group A
Czech Republic 1.31%
Greece 1.08%
Poland 1.73%
Russia 3.39%
Group B
Denmark 1.08%
Germany 22.12%
Netherlands 11.84%
Portugal 4.21%
Group C
Croatia 1.73%
Italy 5.90%
Republic of Ireland 1.08%
Spain 25.27%
Group D
England 8.02%
France 8.02%
Sweden 1.31%
Ukraine 1.91%
  TOTAL 100.00%

Sporting probabilities direct from the Raptor

The Raptor will be tweeting the odds for each game on the day of the game; if you’d like to receive those, sign up to follow the Raptor here:

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Dan's avatar

About Dan
The spearhead and Senior Partner of Full Contact, Dan is an experienced solicitor and advocate, with a specialist background in employment law and sports.


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